If the US were to default...

[MooseMom]

what would happen to dialysis patients whose treatments are paid for by Medicare?  What about transplant patients?  Anyone know?  Has anyone heard this topic discussed in the media?

(PLEASE DO NOT MAKE THIS INTO A POLITICAL DEBATE.  THIS IS A SERIOUS QUESTION.  THANK YOU.)

[Shaks24]

Payments  made to providers may be delayed. I am sure providers would be aware of the situation and cope with it the best they could. Unfortunately it would not be a good situation.

[MooseMom]

I am sure providers would be aware of the situation and cope with it the best they could.

Yes, but what exactly does this mean?  Does Davita have a plan?  At what point would they no longer be able to "cope"?  And how does one define "cope"?

[Shaks24]

How can anyone know for sure.  I think we would be in uncharted waters. Surely the providers would not quit providing service as people could die. I am hopeful that this mess will get worked out. One of the parties wants to rein in costs including the costs of medicare.

[Bill Peckham]

Medicare and Social Security have their own funding so I am not sure how they would be impacted. Over the short term the realities of the check writing system may mean delayed payments but it is hard to imagine a default lasting very long, not that it would have to last very long to have large effects. In general a default would increase the cost of borrowing but for Social Security that means more revenue. The Social Security Trust Fund has to invest in Treasuries so if the interest rate the federal government has to pay to borrow money goes up then when the  treasuries held by the SS Trust fund get rolled over they would get rolled over at a relatively higher rate.

[jeannea]

Very good question. Hard to know the exact answer. Short term, probably very little would happen. Longer than that, I understand there could be a worldwide economic depression unlike any seen in many years or maybe ever. Of course that would cause problems in healthcare. I fear many people would die.

If you want to debate the merits of the political parties or affordable care act or whatever, try www.fratching.com.

[Dman73]

I believe that what is currently going on is all a game of political chicken that will be resolved in the 11th hour.

Some day there will be a global financial collapse and martial law resulting in a world described by the the Georgia guidestones.

http://www.thegeorgiaguidestones.com/Message.htm

fema prison rail cars...

https://www.google.com/search?q=fema+prison+rail+cars&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=p6heUrC7Bc-MkAfi94H4Ag&ved=0CD0QsAQ&biw=888&bih=534&dpr=1

DHS buys 1.6 billion rounds of hollowpoint ammunition

http://rt.com/usa/dhs-ammo-investigation-napolitano-645/


makes you think why?

smell the roses

[Rerun]

Exactly the question I had MM!

If things shut down and all collapses.... Dialysis patients would just die.  Sad, but no dialysis worker I know would come to work and we would not have supplies anyway and Hospice would not even be there to help us die with dignity.  I wish I had a cyanide pill!

It is ENDTIMES.  It will either happen now or later.

Bring this way down to the size of a family of 8.  Mom and Dad and six kids.  They buy a house they can't afford, they buy 3 cars they can't afford they borrow from the bank they can't afford the payments they max out their credit cards and then one of them falls ill and in the hospital for 3 days.  Then the dad loses his job.....  At some point there is no help and you will fall on relatives who can't afford you and then the streets.

I'm going to go buy banans and milk so it goes quick!  I'll go today before there is a run on the grocery stores. 

Germany WWII didn't happen in a day.

[Rerun]

If the US were a ship and it were sinking because we were spending too much money.  We would throw overboard all those sucking off the cow.  They would dump us overboard followed by anyone who didn't work to bring in an income.

Okay, I need to get a grip!   

[Rerun]

We let those 75,000 cows die in the Dakota's.  No help because the government was shut down.  There goes a lot of hamburger!

[Whamo]

I read an email yesterday from Lombardi publishing predicting the collapse of a major U.S. bank.   That would be catastrophic.  It would be such a large default it would be impossible to bail out.
Lord help us when the "K" wave breaks on us.  It will be ugly.  I'm sure they'll throw us under the bus.  We cost 70K a year in dialysis alone. 

[Paul]

However the important thing to remember is that it is bloody unlikely that the US will default. Sure it is possible, but the earth being hit with a DK in our lifetime is more likely, and that would kill everyone off. But you don't worry about that do you? So why worry about the US becoming insolvent?

[Paul]

Sorry meant to add this as a post script to my last post (for those that do not know) but forgot:

DK = "dinosaur killer", a meteor big enough to wipe out the dominant life form (humans) hitting the earth and doing for us what is believed a previous one did for the dinosaurs. It is always a real and present danger, statistically it should have happened by now, so we are overdue.

[Michael Murphy]

If the US defaults Medicare, social security would pay out what is currently generated by its own funding stream which I think currently is about 80 to 90 percent.  The rest of the money comes from ious written by the treasury since the early 80’s.  Every year until recently the SSA turned over its surplus to the treasury and the treasury issued a  bond for that amount to the SSA.  Now as thr SSA needs to draw on those bonds a default will short benefits.  This has not been a political issue since both parties. Have participated in this farce.

[Simon Dog]

statistically it should have happened by now, so we are overdue.

Statistically irrelevant.  This is the same falacy as thinking the dice in craps are "overdue" to roll in you favor after a long losing streak.

On the other hand, the chances of a supervolcano eruption is not an independent event, and is related to the pressure buildup over time.    Those happen about once every 600,000 years as opposed to once in tens or hundreds of millions of years like a DK.

[Paul]

Statistically irrelevant.  This is the same falacy as thinking the dice in craps are "overdue" to roll in you favor after a long losing streak.

While the point you are making is mathematically accurate, it has no relevance to what I was saying. Which was:

The odds on a DK hitting the earth in any one person's lifetime are greater than the odds of the US getting into a situation where it has to/chooses to default on medical payments. Thereby the odds on dying from the earth being hit by a DK are greater than the odds of a default. So you should be more worried about that DK than a default. This has no connection with how "overdue" we are for a DK occurrence.

I also said that statistically a DK is overdue, this is accurate, the "law of averages" says it should have happened by now. However, I did not state that this makes one hitting the earth now more likely. I said it is a clear and present danger, and if you are the sort of person who worries about possible bad futures, a DK should be high on your list of worries, way above a default. It is likely regardless of how overdue it is. It would be more likely than a default even if we had been hit by a DK last Tuesday.

In other words, stop worrying about a default and (in the words of the great Criswell) "Watch the skies"!

[Simon Dog]

Everything you say is true, however, I think the chances of  the Yellowstone caldera going up is greater than either default or DK.

[Paul]

Everything you say is true, however, I think the chances of  the Yellowstone caldera going up is greater than either default or DK.

Which is another good reason to stop worrying about default.

[Rerun]

This thread originated in 2013, so it hasn't happened yet. 

[Paul]

This thread originated in 2013, so it hasn't happened yet.

Waaagh, we are more overdue than I thought!!!!!! 

[Whamo]

The odds of a major default are very high.  Almost all the economics gurus I read concur.  We may muddle along for awhile, but when major banks owe $350 to every dollar on deposit and the derivatives markets are past the point of no return it seems hopeless.  No currency not backed by gold has ever avoided going to zero.  The best thing we can do is try to get a transplant or artificial kidney before the whip comes down.

[Paul]

The odds of a major default are very high......but when major banks owe $350 to every dollar on deposit and the derivatives markets are past the point of no return it seems hopeless.

I think you are confusing defaults. The fan gets hit with smelly stuff if the government defaults, not if banks default, and not if derivatives or stocks crash. Remember: A few years back several major British banks failed, and we are still in financial problems because of it, yet we still have a free health service. The government still pays all the costs of my dialysis, including a cab to and from the clinic, and they pay all the costs of all my medication and all other treatments. They still pay for (and actively encourage) kidney transplants, and pay for all medication and follow up treatments afterwards. The banks going belly up and the stocks values dropping did not stop that. Your government pays a lot less than ours towards medical treatment, so unless the government itself goes bust you are OK.