Spring 2018 North Korea/US meeting

[Bill Peckham]

There are so many elements of this that are interesting as we prepare for this meeting to happen. One is where they will meet because what I read is that NK does not have an airplane that can travel > 1000 km and even at that the planes are not thought to be very safe. To get to China Jong-Un [/size]took a train that due to armoring travels at 20 mph. Where do you think they will meet? I think it has to be South Korea - I predict a SK golf resort that Jong-Un can drive to.


Then there is the substance of what they'll discuss ... has anyone seen a realistic goal laid out? What does a success look like?

[Paul]

Personally I think Kim Jong-un is playing Trump. He wants something, but I'm betting he will give nothing of substance to get it.

[Simon Dog]

Fat Boy gets legitimacy by meeting with Trump and not a minion, but nothing real will happen.

It's like he read "Basement Nukes - the consequences of individual sovereignty" (and old Palladian Press book) and is using it as his handbook.

The only thing that might work is something like the secret "no interference" treaty the US hammered out with Cuba as the missile crisis was resolved.

[Paul]

Fat Boy gets legitimacy by meeting with Trump

Well only with Republicans and Republican supporters, the rest of the world got no respect for a world leader whose only presidential meeting is with "President Big Joke". Other world leaders got to meet with Obama or Bush or Clinton or the other Bush, or a selection of the above. All Kim Jong-un got was a meeting with the shouty funny haired guy with the brain of a potato. No one gonna respect him for that.

Well outside North Korea anyway, and within the country the believe whatever he says (or else). He doesn't have to actually meet Trump, he could just tell them he did. Hell, he could tell them he had a meeting with George Washington, and they'd have to believe him.

[Simon Dog]

Well only with Republicans and Republican supporters

I meant "legitimacy in his own mind".   I do not think Fat Boy will gain any particular legitimacy with Republicans.

[lulu836]

Just for my own "edumacation" can y'all let me know how it feels to be so fatalistic, narrow-minded and opinionated?

[Bill Peckham]

Just for my own "edumacation" can y'all let me know how it feels to be so fatalistic, narrow-minded and opinionated?

I'd love for this to succeed ... what does that look like?

[MooseMom]

I agree.  How will "success" be defined?

The US nor China nor Russia will denuclearize, so N. Korea's "offer" to do so means nothing.  I don't see the populations of any of these countries being willing to destroy all of their nukes.

If an offer is made to the N. Korean leadership to, say, do whatever they want to make them feel "legitimate on the world stage", I'd certainly listen.

So, lulu, what do you want to see as the end result here?  What would you accept, and what do you see as a realistic goal that would be acceptable to all of the countries in the region?

[lulu836]

So, lulu, what do you want to see as the end result here?  What would you accept, and what do you see as a realistic goal that would be acceptable to all of the countries in the region?

[rant]
If I had an acceptable answer for that I would be earning the BIG Bucks.  I just had to butt in  because I'm pretty sure I'm a LOT older than most members here.  I was 4 years old and out for a day of shopping and a movie with my mother when our "friends" in conical hats bombed the s--t out of Pearl Harbor.  The  m ale lust for power and dominance over people, countries, property etc., continues to get everybody in trouble.  In a perfect but apparently unattainable world that lust would be wrenched as painfully as possible from them so that there IS government, by and for, but not power grubbing and possession by any means necessary. [/rant]

Wait...........I forgot about Hillary......oh well!  ............and Pelosi....   and _______________________(insert your fave crooked politico)..........

[MooseMom]

LOL, lulu...yours is a perfectly acceptable answer!  I can't argue with a single word!

 

[Michael Murphy]

The solution is to let them keep their nukes but surround them with enough aegis class ships so we can shoot down any missle launched at us or our allies.  Much easier to hit em on the rise before they pick up a lot of speed.

[iolaire]

@rerun I'm interested in hearing your views on this latest development?  I recall back to all the criticism Obama received for dealing with Cuba and Iran and wonder if its different this time?  I also wonder why we are back stepping on agreements/relationships with Cuba and Iran at the same time we step forward with North Korea? 

For example to me this view seemed fairly prevalent in conservative circles under Obama:
(Rerun this is not an attack, just really I want to know if the conservative view changed under Trump and if North Korea is different.  In many of the political debate threads I think back to your posts as a common conservative view under Obama.)
https://ihatedialysis.com/forum/index.php?topic=32498.msg496151#msg496151

So if you can't beat them join them?   OMG!

It will be a challenge for them but how Iran will gloat when they build a nuke right under our noses. 

Iran is not a country we need to compromise with.  Neither is Cuba!  Whom will change whom?  Do you think Iran will be lured into democracy?  See how the United States treats women and think that is a "great" idea?  They will instead try to change our culture.  Not a good deal.

My view back then was as follow (same thread as the link above), its high time to try something else - the policies of the past xx years have not changed things in Cuba, Iran, and North Korea, but I do wonder why we turned our back on Iran with some democratic like elections and Cuba which is ripe for change, yet out of the three we now want to start working the Dictator.

I fully support it.  What have we accomplished with our policy of the past 25 years with Iran?  How many centrifuges has Iran built despite all the existing trade bands and inspections.  Or what have we accomplished with the past 62 years with Cuba?

Its very clear isolation doesn't make governments we don't like go away.  At least we are trying something.  Lucky for us people are starting to be more open to trying new things rather than just relying on some play book built long before they were in politics.

[MooseMom]

Regarding the possible ending of the US involvement in the Iran deal and how it may affect our dealings with N. Korea, coincidentally John Oliver on Last Week Tonight had a piece about that very subject just last night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xnZ_CeTqyM

[Paul]

The solution is to let them keep their nukes but surround them with enough aegis class ships so we can shoot down any missle launched at us or our allies.  Much easier to hit em on the rise before they pick up a lot of speed.

Good idea, but any idea how much that is going to cost in tax dollars?

Regarding the possible ending of the US involvement in the Iran deal and how it may affect our dealings with N. Korea, coincidentally John Oliver on Last Week Tonight had a piece about that very subject just last night.

Give back John Oliver. You stole him from us and we want him back (and James Corden, we want him back too.)

PS We will give you Piers Morgan in exchange. Fair?

[Bill Peckham]

Give back John Oliver. You stole him from us and we want him back (and James Corden, we want him back too.)

PS We will give you Piers Morgan in exchange. Fair?

No deal - Oliver is here on his own volition as far as anyone can prove and Gordon seems to be really enjoying himself.

[Michael Murphy]

Tax load of setting aegis Class naval vessels would be shared between Japan, US, and South Korea.  They all have ships capable of stopping a North Korean launch.  Plus if US or allies territory is hit the US has the power to turn North Korea into a glass skating rink. If you don’t want to go nuclear. The US is the only country that retains the ability to level entire cities with conventional bombs.

[Rerun]

Here I go.....

I had hopes for Cuba but after the mysterious Sonic attack that wounded several of our diplomats in the ears and brains I have no trust for Cuba.  I hear tourism is down too.  Maybe Bill can go check it out.  I'm sure they have some of our old dialysis machines over there. 

My hope for the N. Korea meeting is that Trump gets the three hostages back.  I hope Kim has researched what would happen to him....  if he pulled a nuke. 

I do NOT see Trump handing over billions of dollars in cash in the middle of the night to N. Korea as long as they "promise" to not advance their Nuclear Program.  Not gonna happen!

If Trump doesn't hear what he wants to hear from "Rocket Man" he will walk out.  Good for Trump!

[iolaire]

@Rerun thanks

[Jean]

@ Iolaire. Thanks.

[Simon Dog]

We can only hope that the result is not "Breakthrough!!! This time, we got a promise!".

[MooseMom]

I am not sure if Trump thinks he will be able to get some sort of unilateral deal with N. Korea without the inclusion of China, Japan and S. Korea at some point.

To rerun's point, I am not sure exactly what it is that Trump wants to hear.

What no one seems to be thinking about is just how Congress is going to react to whatever "deal" Trump thinks he will be making.  Kim can probably do whatever he wants to do since he does not have a Congress to answer to.

The US gave back money to Iran that was Iran's in the first place.  I don't know if the US has, in the same vein, kept hold of any North Korean funds to give back.  Does anyone know?

If anyone is more edumacated on these queries than I am, I'd appreciate your thoughts!

[MooseMom]

Forgot to add:  The goal seems to be the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.  That would be a wonderful miracle, and I am truly hoping it will happen.

My question is this:  The Kim dynasty has spent decades in convincing their people that the West, particularly the US, is the lair of demons.  North Korean power and protection from this evil is their nuclear program.  In between trying to stave of starvation, the north Korean people take great pride in their arsenal.

So, can Kim realistic turn around and say, "Oh, hold off.  We've just discovered that the Americans aren't so evil after all, so we're going to dispose of our nuclear arsenal now."  After all of these years of propaganda that has convinced people of one thing, how does the leader from that same dynasty suddenly turn off that particular spigot?

This is basically going to end up being a big face-saving endeavor for Kim, and he will have to have some help in this from the US.

This is going to be really interesting, or really dangerous.  I really don't know which way things will go.  I go from being optimistic to being utterly baffled.

[Simon Dog]

Nukes are the only thing that allow fat boy to come to the table as an equal to the US.  Once he gives those up, he becomes a small time dictator who rules with permission of, and at the pleasure of, the US.

It is very difficult ot negotiate a peace when the more powerful player takes the position "once we reach peace, you will be subervient to us from a military/firepower perspective, and will exist as long as we choose to permit it".    It's one of the problems with the so-called Israeli two-state solution.  An unspoken, but very real, requirement Israel imposes is "we may be able to have two states, but we will never accept a Palestinian state that is equal to Israel in military capability".

It would be as irrational for fat boy to give up his nukes as it would be for him to use them.  It truly is a game where the only way for him to win is not play, but resigning from the game will bring him down.

[Paul]

Nukes are the only thing that allow fat boy to come to the table as an equal to the US.  Once he gives those up, he becomes a small time dictator who rules with permission of, and at the pleasure of, the US.

(A) Nukes don't put North Korea equal to the US. It means it can no longer be classed as a TPLC, but it ain't equal to the US. Hell, it ain't even equal to the Isle of Wight, and the Isle of Wight is still stuck in the 1970s.

(B) Kim Jong-un is already a "small time dictator", he does not have to give up his nukes to become one.

[Simon Dog]

ukes don't put North Korea equal to the US. It means it can no longer be classed as a TPLC, but it ain't equal to the US

Certainly not militarily, but they do make it much harder for the US to simply say "We have the firepower, we are in charge, sit down and listen to how it is going to be".

A nuclear power relates to other nuclear powers in a much different manner than do non-nuclear states.

Kim Jong-un is already a "small time dictator", he does not have to give up his nukes to become one.

A small time dictator is one with which the US may say "Time for you to be disciplined.  We will be launching a strike in a few days and there is nothing you can do about it or do to meaningfully retaliate".  Thing Syria or Ghadaffi era Libya.

Fat Boy is big time because he has enough firepower (nuclear and conventional) as to make that a non-option for the US.