Brexit to go?

[Paul]

This looks as if there is a serious misunderstanding taking place......

I wasn't taking a pop at you or your post, my comments were about John Humphrey's reaction.

And Paul, I could not comment on your other statements because, to be honest, I don't quite understand where you are coming from and what you mean

Basically I was saying that it a woman's choice as to how she uses her body (for good or bad) and no other asshole has a right to dictate this to her (either to a particular woman, or women as a group).

I also could not comment what you mention about shooting etc. because I always have been and still am a pacifist

A pacifist is someone who will not fight. You appear to be saying that your pacifism means that if you see a woman being badly treated, you will just stand back and watch. That is NOT pacifism.

[MooseMom]

What do you all think of the formation of The Independent Group?

[kristina]

What do you all think of the formation of The Independent Group?

Hello MooseMom,
If you ask me, I feel like watching a school-play going wrong because the head-teacher is missing ... 

[Paul]

What do you all think of the formation of The Independent Group?

Time will tell.

In Britain we have several political parties, but only two that matter. The others never get in power - ever. However at the moment both parties are a disappointment to most voters, even that party's core voters. One is currently seriously mismanaging a claim that they are all racists, and managing to look like they are confirming the accusation, while simultaneously alienating a large number of their core voters by radically moving further to the left than many of them like. The other party is comprehensively bogging up Brexit in a way that seriously angering both the pro and anti Brexit voters. Plus recentish news (Windrush) make them look even more racist than the other lot because they were cooking the books to send back immigrants who were invited over here with a promise of citizenship at a time when we really needed them. And on top of that their party leader is probably the worst prime minister we have ever had. Oh, and the party is self destructing over an internal argument over Brexit.

So it is possible that, for the first time in history, a third party will win the next election, simply because no one want either of the two main parties back in power again (at least until they have sorted themselves out). So, if they can get enough candidates to stand at the next election "The Independent Group" could win it.

However, they are not currently a "political party", just a group of independent politicians without any party allegiances. They would have to form into an actual party if they wanted a chance to become the government.

Personally (and this is an IMHO) I think that the most likely outcome of the next election will be one of the other existing parties getting into power. Either the third or fourth largest at the moment. Either the Liberal-Democrats or UKIP. I'm hoping for the former and fearing the latter.

[Paul]

I feel like watching a school-play going wrong because the head-teacher is missing ... 

Two school plays simultaneously going wrong in a myriad of ways. And the head teachers are not missing, just idiots. The plays would go so much better if they were missing.

It at times like this that I can understand your habit of never watching the news. This mess is boring, annoying, making Britain look stupid, and helping ruin the country. Even I don't want to watch this happening.

[kristina]

I feel like watching a school-play going wrong because the head-teacher is missing ... 

Two school plays simultaneously going wrong in a myriad of ways. And the head teachers are not missing, just idiots. The plays would go so much better if they were missing.

It at times like this that I can understand your habit of never watching the news. This mess is boring, annoying, making Britain look stupid, and helping ruin the country. Even I don't want to watch this happening.

Hello Paul,
Many thanks for your comprehensive explanations.
... To be honest, I would not want to say out loud that the headteachers are idiots, because, even though it appears to be the truth, I am still hoping that "things" are getting better and it sounds so harsh and is a horrendous thought to realize that our future may be decided by idiots ...
Sometimes, when at the doctors, hospital etc., whilst waiting, I happen to watch a little TV and when I happen to listen to the House of Commons, the thought comes to me that "once upon a time" there was a Shakespeare living here and many other great thinkers and many wonderful composers etc. and now we have to listen to this "watered down thought" ... which hardly anyone can understand or follow and which perhaps may not even be a thought at all ...
Mind you, I don't go out of my way to get familiar with the latest news (no TV etc.), but I still make a point to be not completely ignorant about what is going on.
And you hit the nail on the head when you say that this mess is boring and annoying ... 
But, what really hurts most of all is the fact that many of our politicians seem to make a point to make Britain look stupid, they don't appear to bother or help the country but only seem to help themselves on all financial levels and they also seem to be too insensitive to even notice the despair of the population. That really hurts !

[MooseMom]

Thanks for your thoughts on the matter as it currently stands.

I realize that TIG is no a separate political party.

I also realize that the Conservatives have had a mess on their hands with the Windrush catastrophe in which May was complicit.

If any of you have any further comments or concerns as the Brexit clock winds down, please post as I am most interested!  Thank you!

[Paul]

I am still hoping that "things" are getting better

Sadly they are not getting better, they are getting worse. Mrs May is driving towards an exit that even she admits will ruin the country. Even worse, it is liable to anger many Irish ex-terrorists and there is a blindingly good chance it will start the Irish bombing again.

[Paul]

Just heard the best name ever for the current Brexit situation.

This Brexit thing has been going on for nearly three years (or over three years if you include the run up to the referendum). The arguments are still going on over what type of Brexit we are going to have, each one either named after where they were created (Chequers Brexit) or the country who already has that deal (Norwegian Brexit, Swedish Brexit, etc.) or a vague sense of despair (No Deal Brexit). And now they are talking about extending the Brexit negotiations for up to another year!

Considering that, a radio presenter came up with the perfect name for it: He called it "Hotel California Brexit" because "You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!"

Oh God, that is exactly how it feels.

[iolaire]

Considering that, a radio presenter came up with the perfect name for it: He called it "Hotel California Brexit" because "You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!"

Good analogy.

[MooseMom]

I still don't see any real progress regarding Brexit.  Northern Ireland is STILL a big sticking point.

[MooseMom]

[John Bercow] "Division!!!  Clear the lobby!!!" [/John Bercow]

Any guesses on what's going to happen next?

[Paul]

Any guesses on what's going to happen next?

Well now they have voted against May's plan yet again, there is no time to come up with another plan. That leaves only three options:

1) Crash out with no deal (this is contrary to the referendum as those people who voted "out" were given the promise that we would have a deal to make continued trading with Europe easy, if they had known they were risking a "no deal" ending, many would have voted to remain).

2) A second referendum (although this is within the bounds of "fair play" as we are not going to get what we were told we would get if we voted "out", we were told by the prime minister that there would not be a second referendum, and they would abide by the first one whatever happened).

3) Ask the EU for permission to withdraw our request to enact Article 50. Basically this means "say we are very sorry for being a nuisance but we no longer want to leave the EU, so can we stay members please, pretty please with sugar on" (obviously this is NOT in keeping with the result of the referendum).

In short, the referendum is broken, screwed, and useless. Whatever happen it will not be what the majority of people who voted, actually voted for.

[Paul]

I should also point out that options 2 and 3 (above) require the EU to agree. They can force a "no deal" crash out for us by both refusing a return to the EU and refusing to give us enough time for a new referendum, if they want.

[Paul]

Latest news on Brexit: Theresa May has decided to try and get parliament to agree to her deal again. So far she has tried three times, each time it was voted down. She has made no changes to it since she was last voted down, and there is no indication that a fourth vote will get any other result, no one has stated they have changed their minds, and nothing has changed to make it even slightly more likely for her plan to win the vote, but she is going to try a fourth time to get the damn thing passed, with no real hope.

So basically, the British prime minister's idea for solving the Brexit deadlock is that she has found a very nice wall that she likes a lot, so she is going to continue to bang her head against it.

I guess it is easier than doing something that might actually solve the impasse.

We are so screwed!

[MooseMom]

Well, Kenneth Clark's amendment got the most votes, though not a majority.  So maybe that's one option.  Maybe there can be a second referendum with three choices:  No Deal, Kenneth Clark's proposal or Remain.

[Paul]

Well, Kenneth Clark's amendment got the most votes, though not a majority.  So maybe that's one option.

Except that those people who voted "out" do not consider this as Brexit, they see it as remaining in the EU by other means. There have been threats of civil unrest and riots if this amendment goes through.

(For those that do not know, and are actually interested, Kenneth Clark's amendment is to remain in the customs union which (assuming the EU will agree) would mean keeping to all the EU rules and not negotiating trade deals with other countries.)

[MooseMom]

There is no scenario in which the majority of the people will be happy.

If the UK crashes out with no deal, that will be the end of the United Kingdom because Scotland will call another independence referendum.

Those people who are threatening civil unrest and riots have never given one single thought to what will happen to the N. Ireland border with the Republic.  They don't give a shamrock.

I hope they aren't thinking they'll get some super special trade deal with the US because Obama was right.  If the UK leaves the EU, they will go to the back of the line as far as trade policy goes.  Trump is mad at Theresa May for not following his advice, and revenge is like a nice pudding for him.

This has been like a soap opera!  It makes for some very compelling telly, I'll grant you that!

[Paul]

If the UK crashes out with no deal, that will be the end of the United Kingdom because Scotland will call another independence referendum.

That will depend on how the north/south Ireland border thing goes. The excuse Scotland would have for a second independence referendum is that they don't want to leave the EU, and if they were an independent country they could apply to join the EU as a separate country. If, as is expected, the UK leaving the EU causes problems across the north/south Ireland border, because it is a border between an EU country and a non-EU country, then there will be similar problems between Scotland and England if Scotland becomes an independent EU member. The country that Scotland exports to most is "South Britain" (England and Wales). Also a lot of Scots live in Scotland but cross the border to work in England. Much cross border shopping occurs with people living close to it (from both sides to the other side). Plus, a lot of Scottish people have "emigrated" to England, but regularly go back home to visit their family who remain in Scotland. All this will become difficult if Scotland becomes an independent country and an EU member. It will seriously effect Scotland's economy and the lives of many Scots. So, if we do "crash out" of the EU, the Scots will have a lot to think about when voting in an independence referendum.

It makes for some very compelling telly, I'll grant you that!

Really? We get so much of it here that it it makes for really boring telly, and even more boring talk radio. I have partly joined Kristina in not listening to the news. I rarely watch it on TV or read newspapers. I still listen to the Today program on the radio but hit the snooze button as soon as Brexit is mentioned, which means a three hour news program only plays for about half an hour on my radio. Nowadays I get most of my news from the BBC news app on my 'phone because it lists the headlines and you click on the news items you want to read or watch on video. I only click on items that contain no mention of Brexit whatsoever.

[Paul]

Latest News on Brexit: (Yes, despite trying to avoid it, I still get the latest Brexit news forced on me whether I like it or not.) The UK parliament will have another round of "indicative votes" on Monday, basically, a line of votes on ideas that they think the prime minister should go for. If any of them get a lot of votes, the smart money is on her bieng forced to go with that idea.

To understand how big a deal that is: Imagine in America, your president wants one thing, he is blocked by the senate and instead, the senators of HIS OWN PARTY force him to do something else, something he feels is wrong and does not want to do. In other words, the president becomes the puppet of the senate, and his own party's senators are the main force behind making him a puppet. That is sort of where we will be next week.

[MooseMom]

You get Brexit 24/7, and we get Trump 24/7.  Pick your poison.  At least May doesn't vent on Twitter and has managed to hang on to a modicum of dignity.

Your analogy is actually sort of the way our Constitution is supposed to work.  It's called "checks and balances".  The President gets a veto, but Congress can override a Presidential veto if it has enough votes.  But no one ever thinks that this is puppetry. 

[Paul]

Your analogy is actually sort of the way our Constitution is supposed to work.  It's called "checks and balances".  The President gets a veto, but Congress can override a Presidential veto if it has enough votes.  But no one ever thinks that this is puppetry.

It is not quite the same thing as "checks and balances". Take, for example, Trump's wall: If the REPUBLICAN senators stopped him building the Mexican border wall. And then they insisted he let all Mexicans into America, with no checks, and also set up a hostel giving them free bed and free food paid for by US taxes. And Trump would have no choice but to setup and agree funding for this. That is the closest I can think of in US politics, and I really doubt it happening. (And if you think of the violent response from some more extreme members of the US population, you can see why Britain is worried that Brexit will lead to civil unrest and possibly riots.)

At least May.....has managed to hang on to a modicum of dignity.

Oh no she hasn't! Have you seen her dance? At any possible excuse and she dances like a gran her grandchild's school disco! Once she danced (if you can call it dancing) onto the stage at a serious conference, to the music of Abba's "Dancing Queen". Totally inappropriate and seriously embarrassing even to watch. And comparing her with Trump: Several people have said we would have been better off with Trump. You may have seen by my posts on the subject, that I personally have a very low opinion of Trump, but even I agree that we would have been better off if we had Trump negotiating Brexit.

[Paul]

At least May doesn't vent on Twitter

No, she goes to the national press to vent. Part of the reason she lost the third attempt to get her plan passed is that the day before she had gone to a national newspaper to basically say it was not her fault, and to seriously condemn and insult those politicians who had voted against her the last time.

[Paul]

So, this is how Brexit feels:

[Paul]

And this is how we currently feel about our politicians: