Mr. Donald Trump ?

[MooseMom]

We have 2 hard working tax paying ranchers in prison because a controlled burn got on some federal land yet we are letting the Getmo prisoners go free to join up with the brotherhood again.

   

Hard working, tax paying people who commit a federal crime should be punished as required by law.  The fact that they are described as such does not mean they are above the law.

We are letting Gitmo prisoners go free because there is not the political will to do anything else with them, and the American people are not brave enough to have them tried in an American court of law.  No US governor or Senator will allow any of them to be put in a jail on US soil (other than Gitmo).  It's a disgrace and gives the world yet one more reason to believe that Americans "talk the talk" but do not "walk the walk".

[MooseMom]

... but I would venture to say ...(at most, just guessing)

I would guess ...

Well, that's just not good enough, frankly, in a discussion like this where there is a real danger of making sweeping generalizations.

Are you saying that it is not accurate to say that the chances of a Muslim immigrant being a terrorist are greater than the chances of a natural born American of the same age and sex being a terrorist is inaccurate?   The answer is a simple "yes" or "no" - the response is not "terrorists come in all colors and religions" (which, while true, is not relevant to the statistical question at hand).

Can this even be quantified?  A particular Muslim immigrant could be radicalized tomorrow, and the same could be said for some white dude.  One doesn't know what might be a particular person's trigger or tipping point.  What are the chances of some white kid becoming a neo-Nazi and deciding to kill a bunch of people IN CHURCH?  How does one statistically measure "chance"?

[Simon Dog]

Can this even be quantified?  A particular Muslim immigrant could be radicalized tomorrow, and the same could be said for some white dude.  One doesn't know what might be a particular person's trigger or tipping point.  What are the chances of some white kid becoming a neo-Nazi and deciding to kill a bunch of people IN CHURCH?  How does one statistically measure "chance"?

Sure, risk can be quantified.  It's called statistics.  Just think of risk analysis of smoking.   Smokers are at higher risk of lung cancer, but smoking does not guarantee one will get lung cancer, and not smoking will not guarantee you will not.

Let A = # of American born people committing terrorists acts / Population of US

Let B = # of immigrants from Muslim nations immigrating to the US and committing terrorist acts / # of such immigrants

Using the same time period for "A" and "B".

Then, compare A and B.    If you still wonder if the different is statistically significant, use the T-test.

Well, that's just not good enough, frankly, in a discussion like this where there is a real danger of making sweeping generalizations.

Some conclusions based on publicly accessibe numbers

Immigrant population according to http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states: 13%.

This means that there should be 6.69 times as many non-immigrant American terrorists as immigrants.

One the US side: Unabomber; Church Shooter; McVeigh

One the Immigrant side: 1st world trade center attach; 2nd world trade center attach; San Bernadino Attach

The Ft Bragg shooting is interesting since it was a non-immigrant who subscribed to the Muslim religion, but we can include him in the list of American terrorists.

I am not counting the CO theater shooting, as there is no evidence that was done for political purposes.  But, if you expand the definition of terrorism you can include that.

No matter how you add it up, I find it hard to conceive we have close to 7 times the native terrorists as imported ones.

[kickingandscreaming]

I wouldn't put too much faith in statistics.  Remember what wise man, Mark Twain, said: ""There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

Many hate crimes go unreported and have little press especially when committed by homegrown white sicko dudes--since they are considered "Patriots" and rarely are labeled "terrorists."  The term "terrorist" has become meaningless since even peaceful activists are broadly labeled as committing terrorist activity.

https://www.splcenter.org/news/2016/01/04/antigovernment-militia-groups-grew-more-one-third-last-year
https://www.splcenter.org/timeline-land-use-and-patriots
https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files  Extremists in the U.S. come in many different forms – white nationalists, anti-gay zealots, black separatists, racist skinheads, neo-Confederates and more.

Extremist groups: https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups  You can see a list of 44 hate groups that are breeding home-grown potential "terrorists"  e.g.

America's Promise Ministries
Located in a section of the Pacific Northwest that was a notorious hotbed of white supremacist activity in the 1990s, America's Promise Ministry is both a Christian Identity church and a major publisher and distributor of right-wing extremist tracts.

American Border Patrol/American Patrol
American Border Patrol/American Patrol (the first-listed group was essentially an Arizona extension of American Patrol, which is also known as Voice of Citizens Together) is one of the most virulent anti-immigrant groups around.

American Family Association
Initially founded as the National Federation for Decency, the American Family Association (AFA) originally focused on what it considered indecent television programming and pornography. The AFA says it promotes "traditional moral values" in media.

American Freedom Party
The American Freedom Party (formerly American Third Position) is a political party initially established by racist Southern California skinheads that aims to deport immigrants and return the United States to white rule.

[Simon Dog]

I wouldn't put too much faith in statistics.

Statistics is what drives medical treatment decisions; drug approvals; etc.  They can be used to either enlighten or mislead.

[MooseMom]

I suppose that risk can be quantified as that is what the insurance industry does every day, but "chance" is something altogether different, especially when you are talking about human behavior.  What is the statistical likelihood that a young white man will become a neo-Nazi and will murder a church full of people?  Has any insurance broker or claims assessor thought to quantify that risk?

Terrorism is defined as a series of acts that instill terror, so that would mean that any mass shooting perpetrated by an individual or group would match that description, so one would have to include all of the various school shootings and cinema shootings and church shootings and the kind of mass shootings we see usually caused by US naturally born citizens.  All of the talk about how the way to stop a bad guy with a gun is with a good guy with a gun shows that we are a terrorized population. Gun sales are booming because people feel terrorized.  At the town hall meeting about guns with the President, as people talked about why they wanted to have a gun, no one explained that they wanted to be able to protect their kids from Muslim extremists.  What about that guy who was randomly shooting at people as they drove on I-10 in Arizona?  Boy, talk about instilling terror!  How about the nutcase who shot all of those people at and around that PP clinic?

We can talk about statistics if you'd like, but when it gets right down to it, as you go about your daily life, from whom do you feel the greatest threat?  I personally feel more at threat from some random white guy who has a beef with the owner of my local grocery store than from a Muslim immigrant terrorist.  I don't feel the need to ban all Muslims from entering the US, but I sure wish that the police were better trained in conflict resolution.  That's a different sort of terrorism, I suppose.

[Simon Dog]

Terrorism is defined as a series of acts that instill terror

Not necessarily, some definitions include "for a political purpose".

As to protection - One can have a situation where the risk of any one individual being a terrorist are greater for certain segments of society, but the odds are that if you are a victim of a terrorist, that it will be a person not a member of that segment.   

I personally feel more at threat from some random white guy who has a beef with the owner of my local grocery store than from a Muslim immigrant terrorist.

Same here.

[cassandra]

Maybe the percentage of terrorism acts commited in western countries by people who are moslims, goes hand in hand with the amount of wars started or escalated by those western countries? However, the reason why terrorism by moslims in moslim countries themselves is at least a hundred times worse than in western countries is still a mystery to me.

[MooseMom]

Maybe the percentage of terrorism acts commited in western countries by people who are moslims, goes hand in hand with the amount of wars started or escalated by those western countries? However, the reason why terrorism by moslims in moslim countries themselves is at least a hundred times worse than in western countries is still a mystery to me.

The way Islam is practiced and observed is different in different cultures, just as the way Christianity is practiced and observed in, say, a primarily Protestant country versus a primarily Catholic country.

We in the West are very Western-centric in that we go ballistic about terrorist acts in Paris (and rightly so) but don't hear so much about the atrocities committed by Boko Haram, and we conveniently forget that the vast majority of victims of these sorts of attacks are other Muslims.  And we certainly don't hear anything at all about the persecution of Muslims in, say, Burma.

I have no doubt that western military actions in Muslim countries are a contributing factor, which brings us all back to the original question, which is about "What would Donald Trump do?"  Somehow, I don't see him being a calming influence in the black hole that is the Middle East.  But if he becomes the President of the United States, all sorts of Middle Eastern leaders (including Israel) will be pushing and pulling him in all different directions.  I have seen nothing about him so far that leads me to believe that he will work effectively for peace.

[Zach]

And we certainly don't hear anything at all about the persecution of Muslims in, say, Burma.

Myanmar’s Peace Prize Winner and Crimes Against Humanity
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/opinion/sunday/myanmars-peace-prize-winner-and-crimes-against-humanity.html

And our Peace Prize-winner seems to be doing nothing about it, either.

[MooseMom]

Exactly, Zach.  Such a disappointment.

[Whamo]

   As a former infantry soldier I'd rather avoid violent confrontations with diplomacy.  That said, the Islamic movement for the last 1,400 years has left millions of heads of infidels in its wake as
its spread across Asia into Europe and down into Africa.  After reading "Because they Hate" and a few other books ringing the alarm, I'm inclined to regard them as a fanatic, tricky enemy. 
I think they should be terminated with extreme prejudice, and not because of their skin color. 

[cassandra]

 
I think they should be terminated with extreme prejudice, and not because of their skin color. 

'They' are people who belief in a certain 'religion'. And as you know religion, any religion has no color. Not even the Jewish one.

[Michael Murphy]

Actually the number of terrorists is much higher, Alanta Olympic bomber, Colorado theater shooter, sandy hook school shooter, the moron who shot a NYC cop, Beltway sniper, Coleen LaRosa known as jihad Jane, and the little rock recruiting office shooting.  This is just a quick list I am sure there are more.  Remember the NRA doesn't think that terrorist pose enough threat that we should ban them from buying guns. 

[Vt Big Rig]

  Remember the NRA doesn't think that terrorist pose enough threat that we should ban them from buying guns.

Actually the NRA was the first to propose background checks and is adamantly trying to get government agencies to share information to put "unstable and illegal" people on the do not sell list  during a background check. How "unstable" is defined is part of the problem..... (aren't we all).

But the gun grabbers (those who want to take them all away) don't let little facts like that get in the way.

[Simon Dog]

Actually the number of terrorists is much higher, Alanta Olympic bomber, Colorado theater shooter, sandy hook school shooter, the moron who shot a NYC cop, Beltway sniper, Coleen LaRosa known as jihad Jane, and the little rock recruiting office shooting.  This is just a quick list I am sure there are more.  Remember the NRA doesn't think that terrorist pose enough threat that we should ban them from buying guns.

The problem is one of "due process".    There is no process to challenge one's presence on the "terrorist watch list"; see the evidence used against you; or confront your accusers.   I doubt the NRA would have any objection to banning those found guilty of terrorism in a court of law from buying guns.  Actually, that's already the case (see the felon ban in 18 USC 922g)

The equation is simple:

1. Like it or not, gun ownership is a constitutional right in the US
2. Constitutional rights should only be taken by due process

To use a driving analogy - Imagine if we had a "drunk watch list" to protect the public from a threat that kills far more people than terrorists in the US every year.  Now, assume that the list is secret; you can ask the agency to put you on the list to review their decision; but you cannot see why you are on the list; who informed the police you are a drunk; or confront any witnesses against you.   Assume further that any police agency in the country can put you on a national "DUI watch list" (banned from having a driving license) based on suspicion; informants; the fact that you are friends with habitual drunks; etc.

[kristina]

There have been reports about Mr. Donald Trump’s thoughts and ideas and particularly his allegations and tirades against Moslems.
Last month he suggested a controversial ban on Moslems entering the USA which has sparked outrage.
He also mentioned the fact that Germany is going through massive attacks to its people by (Moslem) migrants
allowed to enter their country and he stated that Germany was a “total mess"...
... Right now German police examine over 230 videos documenting German girls being sexually attacked, molested,
mugged and in some cases raped in many different major German cities by over 1000 Moslems on a New-Year's Eve-rampage, 
after having kindly received political asylum by the German people ... 
... All these Moslem refugees are supposedly escaping the evil in their own country... but right now it looks rather
as if they have travelled all the way to Germany to deliver evil to the German people who offered them political asylum...

Today (6th February 2016) many public demonstrations are taking place in different major cities of 14 (?) European Countries
to protest against an "Islamisation of the West" ...  The aim of these demonstrations is supposedly
to "preserve our European culture, save our European countries and save our future"...

[iolaire]

1. Like it or not, gun ownership is a constitutional right in the US
2. Constitutional rights should only be taken by due process

Nice how for guns people quote the constitution but for religion (and terrorism perceived risk) we completely ignore due process.

[kristina]

There have been reports about Mr. Donald Trump’s thoughts and ideas and particularly his allegations and tirades against Moslems.
Last month he suggested a controversial ban on Moslems entering the USA which has sparked outrage.
He also mentioned the fact that Germany is going through massive attacks to its people by (Moslem) migrants
allowed to enter their country and he stated that Germany was a “total mess"...
... Right now German police examine over 230 videos documenting German girls being sexually attacked, molested,
mugged and in some cases raped in many different major German cities by over 1000 Moslems on a New-Year's Eve-rampage, 
after having kindly received political asylum by the German people ... 
... All these Moslem refugees are supposedly escaping the evil in their own country... but right now it looks rather
as if they have travelled all the way to Germany to deliver evil to the German people who offered them political asylum...

P.S. Apart from Mr. Donald Trump's thoughts about Moslems, there have been many reports about Moslems travelling to Syria in order to fight for an Islamic State.
Does anyone know what that means and why it would have to be Syria because, after all, there are already many Moslem/Islamic states in existence, starting alphabetically with Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, Morocco etc. continuing with Saudi Arabia and so many other Moslem/Islamic countries/states ? Does anyone know what could be so very special about Syria, their armed conflict and what it all means ?
Thanks from Kristina.

[Michael Murphy]

Several reasons first the capital of the Islamic state is in Raqqa a city in Syria, second the US monitors the Iraqi and Iraq still controls the border with turkey.  This means entry into Syria is easier .

[hatedialysis2]

I do not claim to know the whole truth or to be all knowing, but here is what I understand so far.    The Islamic state/Isol/Isis  is not a state.  They are a group of barbaric fanatics who were created from the rebels and chaos  of the war of Iraq according to documentaries I saw (on Frontline?)  They do not represent islam, nor do they do they represent the 1.6 billion moslems in the world.   They are trying to take over the world and impose their barbaric sick views.     They have found the eastern part of Syria to be a safe heaven since the country fell into the chaos of the Syrian civil war that was created by Syrian oposition group who were supported by many powers to be to overthrow Syria's president Assad.   Syrians are caught  in the middle and have been escaping the horrors of the war, the bombings,  the beheadings by isol  forced recruits, and starvations..   The Russians and Syrian government are fighting the Syrian opposition rebels bombing their stronghold.  The U.S.,  our western allies, arab allies are bombing the barbaric (isis/isol) fanatics strong holds.  With all the fighting and bombings the countries infrastructure has been mostly destroyed.   The barbaric fanatics are looking for recruits in the west and they are doing so using strong social media campagnes targeting (brain washing) young impressionable minds.       

Is your heading spinning like mine?  Are you sorry you asked?     

[cassandra]

And don't forget that Saudi Arabia (lots of money, lots of weapons (lots of British weapons) is supporting every opposition party in Syria because they want to get rid of Bashar al-Assad.

[kristina]

I do not claim to know the whole truth or to be all knowing, but here is what I understand so far.    The Islamic state/Isol/Isis  is not a state.  They are a group of barbaric fanatics who were created from the rebels and chaos  of the war of Iraq according to documentaries I saw (on Frontline?)  They do not represent islam, nor do they do they represent the 1.6 billion moslems in the world.   They are trying to take over the world and impose their barbaric sick views.     They have found the eastern part of Syria to be a safe heaven since the country fell into the chaos of the Syrian civil war that was created by Syrian oposition group who were supported by many powers to be to overthrow Syria's president Assad.   Syrians are caught  in the middle and have been escaping the horrors of the war, the bombings,  the beheadings by isol  forced recruits, and starvations..   The Russians and Syrian government are fighting the Syrian opposition rebels bombing their stronghold.  The U.S.,  our western allies, arab allies are bombing the barbaric (isis/isol) fanatics strong holds.  With all the fighting and bombings the countries infrastructure has been mostly destroyed.   The barbaric fanatics are looking for recruits in the west and they are doing so using strong social media campagnes targeting (brain washing) young impressionable minds.       

Is your heading spinning like mine?  Are you sorry you asked?     

Many thanks for your kind thoughts, Michael Murphy, hatedialysis2, and cassandra ... and to answer your question,hatedialysis2 : yes, my head is spinning quite a bit already ... and it is most fascinating to read about the possible candidates for Presidency and it is quite enlightening and makes one think to read how the "Anti-Donald-Trump-Campaign" brings in heavy - and not to underestimate - influences like the Pope etc. and the Pope criticizing Donald Trump's idea of trying to make entry into the USA more difficult (to interpret this comment very mildly) ... and then ...  everyone knows that there are very protective walls surrounding the Vatican and ... how very difficult it is for anyone to enter the Vatican and try and make an appointment with the Pope ... but the Pope criticizing Donald Trump's idea to make entry into the USA even more difficult in the future...

[MooseMom]

The current Pope is not the one who mandated that a wall was to be built around the Vatican.  Donald Trump is the man who is declaring that he will build a wall that does not currently exist.  Look at the United States border with Mexico.  How much is it going to cost to construct a high enough, strong enough wall to deter people from entering illegally?  If you look at crossings in, say, San Diego and El Paso, thousands of people cross legally every day for work and for commerce.  By far, more people come to the US legally via airports and outstay their visas; THIS is where security needs to be tightened.  All of this talk about building a "beautiful wall" is solely to convince people that they should be very scared and that the United States is crumbling.

Tourists visit Vatican City every day.  The "Vatican Wall" stops no one.

It is no more difficult to get an audience with the Pope than it is to get an audience with the President or David Cameron, which isn't to say that it isn't difficult. 

If you think it is easy to get into the US even legally, well, the last time I returned to O'Hare from Heathrow, we had just landed and were taxiing toward the "parking spot".  BTW, this was a British Airways flight that I was on.  Anyway, the cabin crew starting yelling, "As you exit the plane, have your passports out, open to the photo page, ready for immediate inspection."  They kept yelling this over and over.  Now, I've been on MANY flights from London to the US, and I've never heard this before.  So, we all did as told, and as we exited the aircraft, right there at the door were FIVE fully armed and uniformed immigration officers.  I've never seen that, and it was pretty chilling.  Felt like I was entering a police state.  I felt bad for the people who might be arriving in the US for the very first time.  Talk about bad first impression!

The real Anti-Trump campaign has its genesis in the monied Republican establishment.  They are really pushing for Rubio as they believe that Ted Cruz is a really nasty piece of work with an ego the size of a small planet.

Kristina, if you are interested in Donald Trump, I urge you to listen to some of his town hall meetings/debates.  He says he is going to do this and that he is going to do that, but there has never been one single time when he has given any specifics on how this or that will be done.  He has asked repeatedly for details, and when answering he will veer off about how great it will be and how much everyone loves him.  Other candidates will give details on how they plan to fund this plan or that plan.  Now, you may hate the plans and decide they're never going to work, but at least there is something you can get your head around. 

As for the chaos in the Middle East, Britain bears the brunt of responsibility.  The Ottoman Empire made the wrong decision in choosing the losing side in WWI, so the winners led by the British drew arbitrary lines across the middle east that gave Britain what she wanted and France what she wanted.  The victors of wars write history, and the story has not been a good one.

[Michael Murphy]

The Vatican wall were built during the Middle Ages when every city built them.  For the record the introduction of cannons made them moot.  Vatican walls were built to stop medical armies.  This is possibly the most obtuse comparison I hane ever seen.  As George Patton stated fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.