UCLA researchers ‘locate bin Laden’ - February 17, 2009
A group of UCLA scientist think they may have answered a question that has baffled the most powerful military machine on Earth: where is Osama bin Laden?
“In informal conversations in the Geography Department at UCLA, we began to ask ourselves if the biogeographic theories we use every day – theories that predict how plants and animals distribute themselves over space and over time – employed in conjunction with publicly available satellite imagery, could shed some light on this question,” write Thomas Gillespie and colleagues in the MIT International Review.
“… By bringing these methodologies to bear, it is our hope that a long overdue debate might bring bin Laden back to the fore of the public consciousness – and possibly to justice.”
Combining facts about his behaviour and last known whereabouts with satellite images, the researchers narrow down his possible location to three building in the northwest Pakistan town of Parachinar. "If he's still alive, he honestly could be sitting there right now," says Gillespie (press release).
Kim Rossmo, of Texas State University in San Marcos, told USA Today he was not entirely convinced.
“It’s important to think outside the box, and this is an innovative idea worth more pursuit,” says Rossmo. “However, the authors are much too certain of their conclusions. The idea of identifying three buildings in a city of half a million — especially one in a country the authors have likely never visited — is somewhat overconfident.”
The research team used two principles in their analysis: distance-decay theory and island biogeography. They write:
Distance-decay theory states that as one goes further away from a precise location, there is an exponential decline in the turnover of species and a lower probability of finding the same composition of species. The theory of island biogeography states that large and close islands will have higher immigration rates and support more species with lower extinction rates than small isolated islands.
They also looked for building that met bin Laden’s specific requirements, such as being tall (he is 6’4”) and having an electricity hook up or generator for his dialysis machine.
While this may seem rather simplistic – and hopefully something the military have already considered – it is actually a testable hypothesis. If, as the researchers claim, this is the first attempt by the scientific community to offer up such a hypothesis, it does seem somewhat overdue.
Sadly the researchers have not attempted to model what Bin Laden will do if he is in one of these buildings and reads their study.
http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegreatbeyond/2009/02/ucla_researchers_locate_bin_la.htmlImage: Parachinar, 12 miles from the last known location of bin Laden, Tora Bora / UCLA
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